William Taylor

American Confusion from Vietnam to Kosovo: Coping with Chaos in High Places William Taylor

Dr. Taylor presents an original theory of the dynamics of confusion in governments and in the lives of ordinary citizens. His model postulates a vicious cycle in which the causes of confusion evoke coping tactics which often worsen those causes. One of the most destructive coping tactics, Find-an-Enemy-and-Lose-Your-Confusion spawns conflict and increases the lies and other information pathology already circulating. Exports from this vicious cycle include environmental depredation, political oppression, war and death. Using his model, he illuminates the binds entrapping Robert McNamara and Lyndon Johnson as they expanded the Vietnam War in 1965. He then extends the theory using fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), and submits the model to the ultimate test: forecasting in real time certain events in the 1999 NATO-Serbia War and its aftermath. He published these predictions on his web site during and after that war. This project represents the first use of FCMs to forecast political-military events in real time. The concluding chapters test whether a knowledge of confusion dynamics will increase empathy between opponents, and whether the model is useful for planning humanitarian efforts by betterment organizations.